New Xbox coming before 2020?

Veteran games analyst Michael Pachter thinks we'll see the present console cycle end by 2020 at the latest. In his most recent Pachter Factor podcast, he responded to a fan question regarding the next console generation:

"Given that the current-gen systems often struggle to run games at a steady 30 frames per second at 1080p and the rise of 4K televisions and stuff like VR, do you see this generation of consoles lasting as long as the PS3/Xbox 360 generation (7-8 years)."

Pachter cites the decreasing price of 4K resolution TVs as a factor in triggering the next console cycle:

"I would be surprised if we had a next-gen console in 2018; we might have one in 2019, so I think six years is likely. We will have one by 2020, so I think seven years is a lock. So, lasting as long, probably not, but lasting longer than five years, probably so. [...] So, once everybody has a 4K T.V. I think that's when you get a console cycle where you actually make things that are in 4K."

The next console generation might be a while away yet, but we are beginning to see signs that the big three are at least thinking about it. Nintendo has its NX console launching in the next couple of years, and there are recurring rumors about Microsoft launching a cheaper, disc-less Xbox One somewhere down the line. I wrote an article about some older mutterings about a disc-less Xbox One SKU previously, check that out over here!

Oculus Rift, HoloLens, and PlayStation VR are likely to disrupt the industry even further, and the increasingly PC-like architecture of the Xbox and Playstation could see even stranger twists down the line.

AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, recently commented that the AMD-powered PS4 and Xbox One are targeting a 7-year life cycle, which puts a prospective Xbox Two in-line with Pachter's predictions.

"The consoles work on a five to seven-year strategy; that's the lifetime for these consoles. Without talking about any particular party's console – there will be opportunities to cost-reduce."

Analysts have been predicting the 'death' of the traditional console for years now, but Phil Spencer himself teased a future Xbox console last year. The form a prospective "Xbox Two" will take, however, remains to be seen.

Nice find - I still think the software companies are a long way from finding the full potential of the current consoles - anything to try make money out of us.

Michael Pachter predicted the Wii 2 for 3 years running before the WiiU was announced so I don't think too much stock can be put on his prediction just yet and it is a safe bet that new consoles will be announced for a 2020 release since both Microsoft and Sony are looking to run 10 year console cycle and both support the previous gen well into the current.

As for the Death of Consoles; that talk has been going on for years due to the long life cycle of the last gen and declining sales due to the life cycle and the fact we were going through a recession. The sales figures for the first few months of the generation show that console gaming is nowhere near dead as both consoles outsold any previous console in the same timeframe and were only restricted by the number of units they had made and the number of regions they were sold in. The same thing was said of PC gaming in the early 2000's due to the quick life cycle of hardware at the time and the move to predominately digital sales which are not counted in sales figures and now PC gaming is stronger than ever just in a very different gaming landscape than before.

The same thing is happening to console gaming; the landscape is shifting away from the traditional sellers and bro shooters and is evolving into a more mature and varied industry as is the audience. Back when we were kids video games were considered to be exclusively kids entertainment but as our generation grew up we took gaming with us and made it into the highest grossing entertainment industry in the world gaming isn't going anywhere anytime soon but it may be a very different place in a few years time.

I wish this Gen was more powerful to be honest.

a 4K console might feel like more of a jump hopefully

Excellent post from Sedge...

The first thing that strikes me if the next gen of consoles release in 2020 is that Nintendo will have got their timing wrong again. They'll only have a couple of years with the  NX before they get left for dead again.You might say it's a different market for ninty but I want to see them release competitive hardware at the right time and rule the market again like the Snes days.

I guess this will never happen though!

I doubt there will be any new Xbox consoles before 2020. Like sedge said, I think Microsoft & Sony have a 10 year life span planned for their console's. Nintendo is busy trying to play catch up but I hope their new console might be good enough to buy as I think a more child friendly console might come in handy in the future.